The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960, is a landmark water-sharing agreement between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank. It governs the distribution and usage of six rivers in the Indus River system—a vital water source for millions in both countries. However, recent tensions following the Pahalgam terror attack have led India to suspend the treaty, triggering concerns over its geopolitical and humanitarian consequences, especially for Pakistan.
Understanding the Indus Waters Treaty
The treaty divides the rivers of the Indus system between the two nations:
Pakistan receives exclusive rights over the three western rivers: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.
India retains control over the three eastern rivers: Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.
Under the agreement, while India is permitted limited agricultural use and hydroelectric projects on the western rivers, it cannot divert or obstruct their flow. The treaty has survived multiple wars and crises, often praised as one of the most successful international water-sharing arrangements.
Why India Is Suspending the Treaty
India’s decision to suspend the IWT comes amid escalating tensions following one of the deadliest terrorist attacks in Kashmir, where 26 tourists were killed in Pahalgam. Citing Pakistan’s continued support and shelter for cross-border terrorism, New Delhi has opted to leverage the treaty as a strategic pressure tool. The suspension marks a sharp shift from decades of cooperative water diplomacy.
Impact on Pakistan
The consequences of suspending the Indus Waters Treaty are likely to be severe for Pakistan, which is heavily reliant on the western rivers for:
Agriculture: Over 90% of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on irrigation from the Indus basin. Any disruption in water flow could trigger massive crop failures and threaten food security.
Drinking Water & Daily Use: The Indus River system is a lifeline for over 200 million people. Urban and rural populations alike depend on it for drinking water, sanitation, and daily needs.
Power Generation: A significant portion of Pakistan’s hydropower infrastructure is based on the western rivers. Reduced water flow could lead to energy shortages, power cuts, and industrial slowdowns.
Internal Unrest: Water scarcity could spark social unrest in provinces like Punjab and Sindh, potentially fueling political instability and regional tensions within the country.
What Lies Ahead
India’s suspension of the IWT does not mean an immediate halt to water flow, but it opens the door for stricter control or reduced supply, particularly if diplomatic ties worsen. Pakistan may attempt to take the matter to international forums, but with the treaty suspended, India is no longer bound by the same obligations.
The move also sets a precedent where natural resources may increasingly become tools of geopolitical leverage, shifting the dynamics of Indo-Pak relations.
